Derby della Madonnina to resolve the title battle?
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Reading Time: 3min | Sun. 08.03.26. | 18:15
Inter needs a win but AC Milan has a better overall score in recent games
Tonight the circle could close again at San Siro. The last time Inter Milan defeated AC Milan — two years ago — the Nerazzurri sealed the league title. Since then, Inter have not beaten their city rivals in any competition, whether in Serie A, the Supercoppa Italiana, or the Coppa Italia: four defeats and two draws. To find such a long positive run for Milan against Inter, we must go back more than 20 years, to the period between 2002 and 2005 when Carlo Ancelotti’s Milan went ten games unbeaten against Inter. However, one statistical detail favors the Nerazzurri: Milan have beaten Inter only once as the “home team” at San Siro in their last 11 meetings there, with five defeats and five draws.
The two teams also arrive with contrasting form in the league over the last two rounds. Milan collected just one point at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza against Como 1907 and Parma Calcio 1913. Not only has the Rossoneri’s title challenge been compromised, but even second place is now in doubt. In general, Milan have struggled at home: in 2026 they have recorded only one win in Milan — against US Lecce. On the other side, Inter have not allowed their elimination from the UEFA Champions League to affect their Serie A form. The players of Cristian Chivu were not brilliant against Lecce and Genoa CFC, but they still took all six points.
One advantage for Milan coach Massimiliano Allegri is that his team can comfortably apply a counterattacking strategy against Inter. It remains to be seen whether Chivu will fall into that trap again, as happened in the autumn derby. Several Inter starters are dealing with health issues or are not in peak condition. Of the four strikers, only Francesco Pio Esposito is fully fit. Lautaro Martínez is unlikely to play, although he might sit on the bench to support his teammates. Marcus Thuram has problems with his tonsils, so we could see a starting partnership of Esposito and Ange-Yoan Bonny for the first time this season. Denzel Dumfries is not yet fully fit and might only appear in the second half, while Hakan Çalhanoglu is estimated to be at about 70–80% fitness.
To be fair, Chivu still has one of the deepest benches in the league and cannot really use injuries as an excuse. Milan will be without Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Matteo Gabbia, and Santiago Gimenez. The Mexican’s absence has hardly been noticed, but Loftus-Cheek and Gabbia could be significant misses for Allegri. Up front, Milan are expected to start Rafael Leso and Christian Pulisic, while the only change might be Pervis Estupinsn on the left flank instead of Davide Bartesaghi.
Key duels expected to shape the match include the midfield battle between Luka Modrić and Piotr Zielinski, as well as the clash between Alexis Saelemaekers and Federico Dimarco. Inter’s left wing-back has arguably been the MVP of Serie A so far, with six goals and 14 assists, and many of the league leaders’ attacks originate down his flank. Youssouf Fofana and Fikayo Tomori will likely alternate in helping Saelemaekers contain Inter’s main attacking engine. Regardless of the result, Milan’s clubs will be rubbing their hands with satisfaction. The stadium is sold out, and matchday revenue is expected to reach between 8.75 million and nine million euros — a new Serie A record. Among the 75,500 spectators will also be Milan owner Gerry Cardinale.
SERIE A - MATCHDAY 28
Friday
Napoli - Torino 2-1 (1-0)
/Santos 7, Elmas 68 - Casadei 87/
Saturday
Cagliari - Como 1-2 (0-1)
/Esposito 56 - Baturina 14, Da Cunha 76/
Atalanta - Udinese 2-2 (0-1)
/Scamacca 75, 79 - Kristensen 40, Davis 55/
Juventus - Pisa 4-0 (0-0)
/Cambiaso 54, Thuram 65, Yildiz 75, Boga 90+3/
Sunday
Lecce - Cremonese 2-1 (2-0)
/Pierotti 22, Stulic 38(p) - Bonazzoli 47/
17.00: (1.55) Bologna (3.80) Verona (6.75)
17.00: (1.80) Fiorentina (3.50) Parma (4.70)
20.00: (4.50) Genoa (3.40) Roma (1.95)
22.45: (3.40) Milan (3.30) Inter (2.30)
Monday
22.45: (2.25) Lazio (3.35) Sassuolo (3.50)
***odds are subject to change***