Jude Bellingham (©Getty Images)
Jude Bellingham (©Getty Images)

Real's 2.9% chance of progressing to the Round of 16

Reading Time: 3min | Wed. 29.01.25. | 14:02

Ahead of the final round match against Brest, Real Madrid has very slim chances of advancing directly to the top 8

After Real Madrid 'dismantled' RB Salzburg (5-1) in the penultimate round of the Champions League, they created a glimmer of hope that they could progress directly to the Round of 16 of the elite European competition. Real is currently 16th in the standings, and in this situation, the word 'impossible' is increasingly being placed in front of them when talking about the top 8. As if accustomed to such situations, the Madrid club seems to be used to that word when it comes to the Champions League.

According to Opta analyses, the current European champions have a 2.9% chance of easing their task and advancing directly to the Round of 16. How can they achieve that? In addition to a win over the French team (11PM), Carlo Ancelotti's side needs the following combination of results:

- FC Barcelona must beat Atalanta.

- Lille and Feyenoord must draw.

- Aston Villa must lose against Celtic.

- Monaco have to lose against Inter.

- Bayern Munich must not win by more than two goals.

The experienced Italian spoke about his opponent, but also about the matches he must focus on if he is counting on progressing to the top 8.

"It will be tough, as always. Brest performed very well in the Champions League. They have one point more and have a chance to reach the knockout stage. A lot will be at stake for both teams. We want to finish this difficult stage well. We will only focus on our game. On winning and finishing as high as possible. After that, we will look at the table and see what happens. Tomorrow we will think only about victory, and nothing else."

The Los Blancos were not active in this transfer window, while there is increasing speculation about a potential transfer of Vinicius Junior to Saudi Arabia in the June. Despite this, Ancelotti emphasizes that the most important thing is team effort, but also that, alongside that, there are great individual players who can carry the match.

"We’re not in our best form yet, but we’re close to it. We have a clear understanding of what we need to do, and we’ve improved as a team. Individual players are also making a big contribution to our work. First and foremost, of course, Mbappe, but let’s not forget about Rodrygo, Bellingham… and Vinicius! All of this helps me feel calmer" sad the head coach of Real Madrid.

For Real in this match, due to injuries, Eder Militao, Dani Carvajal, and Eduardo Camavinga will be unavailable, while the aforementioned Vinicius Junior will be absent due to an accumulation of yellow cards.

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - MATCHDAY 8

Wednesday

23.00: (1.60) Aston Villa (4.20) Celtic (6.00)

23.00: (1.80) Barcelona (4.00) Atalanta (4.50)

23.00: (1.02) Bayern (17.0) Slovan B. (75.0)

23.00: (8.00) Brest (5.30) Real Madrid (1.40)

23.00: (6.00) Dinamo Zagreb (4.30) Milan (1.53)

23.00: (1.37) Dortmund (5.10) Shakhtar (7.75)

23.00: (5.60) Girona (3.70) Arsenal (1.65)

23.00: (1.70) Inter (3.90) Monaco (5.50)

23.00: (2.20) Juventus (3.35) Benfica (3.35)

23.00: (1.12) Leverkusen (12.0) Sparta Praha (19.0)

23.00: (2.15) Lille (3.50) Feyenoord (3.60)

23.00: (1.18) Man.City (7.75) Club Brugge (13.0)

23.00: (3.05) PSV (3.70) Liverpool (2.35)

23.00: (9.00) Salzburg (5.00) Atl.Madrid (1.35)

23.00: (1.50) Sporting (4.30) Bologna (6.50)

23.00: (3.90) Sturm (3.50) RB Leipzig (1.95)

23.00: (3.60) Stuttgart (2.45) PSG (2.75)

23.00: (2.60) Young Boys (3.50) Crvena Zvezda (2.80)

***odds are subject to change***


tags

Real MadridBrestCarlo AncelottiUEFA Champions League

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