FKFPL Relegation Permutations: A look at seven teams in danger of the drop

The 2025/26 FKF Premier League season is serving fans with one of the most hotly contested relegation battles, with around seven teams embroiled in the dog fight with only five matches left till curtains fall on the campaign.

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At this stage of the season, there is a thrilling contest at both ends of the table, the title race is yet to be decided, and so is the fight against relegation, where teams aim to retain their league status.

At the end of the season, three teams will be swallowed by the wide jaws of relegation, a departure from the previous seasons where two sides faced an automatic drop, as the third bottom-placed team faced the third-placed team in the National Super League (NSL) in a Promotion/Relegation playoff.

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With five matches to play, which teams are at risk of going down, and what will it take to avoid the chop? Mozzart Sport analyses the fight for survival after match week 29.

In recent seasons, a team would require an average of 35 points in order to avoid relegation, with only the 2024/25 season seeing a team with 35 points relegated, albeit on goal difference, as all four teams at the tail tied on 35 points.

In the past five seasons, no team that amassed 36 points was relegated, while it was only last season that Nairobi City Stars and FC Talanta dropped to the NSL, having reached 35 points

With five matches left to play, 11 teams have surpassed the 36-point mark, while Mathare United are just two points shy of the magical number, a logically achievable feat but still in the relegation matrix.

As it stands, Sofapaka are at the bottom of the log with 17 points and are joined in the relegation zone by Bidco United and Kariobangi Sharks with 23 and 29 points respectively, while 12th placed Mathare United are just five points above the red zone.

With that, it means that the relegation matrix involves seven teams: Mathare United, Posta Rangers, APS Bomet, Ulinzi Stars, Kariobangi Sharks, Bidco United and Sofapaka.

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Based on their latest run of form, Sofapaka and Bidco United are the primary candidates for relegation after match week 34.

Sofapaka

Sofapaka are currently on a 21-match winless streak, more than a whole leg of the league, with the poor run encompassing 15 losses and six draws.

With the run, it is highly unlikely that the team will win all their remaining matches, which would take their points tally to 32, just a point above what APS and Ulinzi currently have and three points above Sharks.

The 2009 league champions would need to win all their matches, as just a single loss would bring an end to their 18 seasons in the Kenyan top flight.

Bidco United

Bidco, on the other hand, will need a minimum of four wins and a draw from their remaining five matches to reach 36 points.

Having won just one of their last 24 matches and with an eight-point gap between them and Ulinzi Stars, who occupy the last safe slot, the Oilers need a miracle to achieve this feat and are likely to return to the NSL after six seasons in the top tier.

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Kariobangi Sharks

The 2018 Mozzart Bet Cup champions, Kariobangi Sharks, are also in the relegation equation and staring at a drop to the NSL for the first time since they were promoted in 2017.

Seven points away from reaching 36 points. Sharks have managed seven points from their past seven matches and have to work a little harder in their remaining five matches to retain their league status.

While they managed to win their last match against Murang’a Seal, it was not enough to get them out of the red zone, as both Ulinzi and APS equally secured victories.

Ulinzi Stars

Military outfit Ulinzi Stars are the team just above the red zone with 31 points to their name, just two more than Sharks, but will be encouraged by the fact that they have bagged four wins in their last five league matches, the best form by any of the teams in the relegation matrix.

The 2010 league champions will be banking on their experience in the top tier that spans over two decades to continue staging a spirited fight in the homestretch.

APS Bomet

Just like Ulinzi, Mozzart Bet-sponsored APS Bomet are also on 31 points but with a one-goal superior goal difference. The Law Enforcers are at risk of returning to the NSL after just one season if they slip at this crucial juncture.

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The Law Enforcers need just five points to reach 36 points and will be encouraged by the fact that they are coached by Sammy 'Pamzo' Omollo, a man with proven experience to guide teams to safety, as well as their seven-match unbeaten run that includes three consecutive wins for the first time this season.

Posta Rangers

Posta Rangers have been dragged into the depths of the relegation battle after failing to win their recent matches, even as the teams below them secured wins and are currently on 32 points.

The Mailmen have won just one of their last five matches and must improve if they are to avoid the last-minute survival pressure.

Mathare United

The Slum Boys, on the other hand, are closest to safety, with just two points shy of the 36-point mark. However, they must get the job done to ensure their safety.