Napoli and Milan play in Saudi Arabia

The reason the Italian Super Cup is being played in Riyadh is money. The hosts in Saudi Arabia have invested close to 25 million euros in this year’s edition. The Super Cup winner will receive a prize of 11 million, the finalist 6.5 million euros, and the two semifinalists 2.5 million each, plus additional costs related to organizing the four-day mini-tournament. However, the Italian Super Cup does not have only its financial—extremely attractive—component, but also a competitive one. It cannot save a season, but it can shape it, or even open cracks that can turn into a chasm. That is exactly what happened to Simone Inzaghi’s Inter, who squandered the trophy in Riyadh despite holding a 2–0 lead against Milan.

The Super Cup opens with the Napoli–Milan clash, while Inter and Bologna will face each other tomorrow. Tonight’s match will be played at Al-Awwal Park, the stadium where Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al Nassr play their home games. Given that Milan are the most popular Italian club in Saudi Arabia, the stands will be filled to capacity—something that will not be the case for tomorrow’s Inter–Bologna duel. Both Napoli and Milan come into tonight’s showdown eager to make amends for last weekend, when missteps in Serie A allowed Inter to overtake them in the standings. Moreover, Napoli suffered two consecutive defeats in the Champions League and the league without scoring a single goal, while Milan confirmed a familiar pattern this season: formidable against the “big” teams, unconvincing against the “smaller” ones.

The Rossoneri have beaten Napoli, Inter, Roma, Lazio, and Bologna this season. Only Juventus avoided defeat, partly thanks to a poorly taken penalty by Christian Pulisic. Even more telling is the fact that in those six matches Milan conceded just one goal, and that came from the penalty spot against Napoli. On the other hand, against newly promoted Serie A sides (Cremonese, Pisa, and Sassuolo) at San Siro, Milan collected only two points (two draws and a loss) and conceded as many as six goals. To be fair, Sassuolo could have gone home singing, considering the chances they created and the penalty that was not awarded after Pavlović’s foul on Kediram.

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The Napoli–Milan clash is also a duel between the two most decorated coaches in the current Serie A. Massimiliano Allegri has 14 trophies to his name, while Antonio Conte stands at nine. Together, they have won 11 of the last 15 Scudetti, though they have not been equally successful in the Super Cup. Allegri has won it three times, Conte twice. In their direct head-to-head meetings, which began 16 years ago when they were on the benches of Cagliari and Atalanta, Conte has had more success: five wins, three draws, and two defeats. Allegri, however, can take comfort from winning their most recent league meeting at San Siro

Both Napoli and Milan will be significantly weakened tonight. Anguissa, De Bruyne, Gilmour, and Meret did not travel to Riyadh, and Olivera picked up an injury in training yesterday. On the other side, Gimenez and Gabbia are absent. Leao did travel to the Saudi capital, but he will not feature tonight, despite being named in the match squad and sitting on the bench. If Milan reach the final, there is a strong chance that Leao will start. That said, recent days have not brought only bad news for Conte and Allegri. For example, Lobotka has fully recovered and is now 100 percent ready for the Super Cup semifinal. The same applies on the opposite side to Fofana. The Frenchman is competing with Loftus-Cheek for a place in the midfield of the starting lineup. Allegri breathed an additional sigh of relief when De Winter completed training and was given the green light, as Odogu had remained his only available defender.

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Both coaches will make several changes to their starting lineups. Conte is inclined to rest Beukema—and possibly Buongiorno—in defense, as well as Lang in attack, while Milan’s coach has decided to rest both the oldest and the youngest starters. According to the latest reports, Modrić and Bartesaghi will begin the match on the bench and be ready to come on in the second half if needed. The Azzurri head coach intends to move Di Lorenzo into the defensive trio in place of Beukema, while Politano would take over the captain’s role on the right flank of midfield. Elmas is also favored over Lang. In other words, by opting for the Macedonian instead of the Dutchman, Conte wants to compensate for Politano’s more attacking role compared to the one Di Lorenzo has when he plays as a right-back. In place of the experienced Modrić, Allegri is determined to give a chance to Jashari, who missed almost the entire first part of the season due to injury. By giving Estupinan a start against Napoli, Allegri also wants to send a message to Bartesaghi not to get carried away after scoring two goals against Sassuolo last week, while at the same time capitalizing on Estupinan’s experience and his desire to redeem himself against Napoli, after leaving his teammates in the lurch in the league by earning a red card.

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The clash between the two teams will also be marked by the battle between the two other forwards, Neres and Pulisic. They have been the driving forces of their respective teams so far this season and belong to the increasingly rare group of players capable of beating an opponent one-on-one, creating numerical superiority, and being unpredictable. Hojlund and Nkunku, two players who arrived from the Premier League last summer, have failed to impress recently. Hojlund’s two goals against Juventus look more like an exception than the rule.

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Romelu Lukaku will be on Napoli’s bench for the first time this season, but it is unlikely that he will come on tonight. The Belgian still needs time to regain match fitness—and to shed a kilo or two. The major protagonists could be Vanja Milinković-Savić and Mike Maignan, two specialists in saving penalties. In addition to being largely responsible for their teams’ strong positions in the Serie A standings, the two goalkeepers will face an additional test if the match ends level after 90 minutes. As a reminder, under the new rules there is no extra time in the event of a draw; the match goes straight to penalties.

SUPERCOPPA ITALIANA

Semi-finals

Thursday

22.00: (2.80) Napoli (3.15) Milan (2.65)

Friday

22.00: (5.90) Bologna (3.90) Inter (1.67)

***odds are subject to change***