BETTING GUIDE: Atletico Madrid vs Valencia, match preview, team news and betting tip
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Reading Time: 6min | Fri. 12.12.25. | 14:56
Atletico Madrid’s home form has been nothing short of exceptional this season, underlining why the Wanda Metropolitano remains one of the most challenging grounds for any visiting side
Atletico Madrid will look to reassert their top-four credentials and regain momentum in La Liga when they return to the Wanda Metropolitano for a crucial clash against Valencia on Saturday.
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After suffering back-to-back league defeats that stalled their title push, Diego Simeone’s men know that a home victory is vital to keep pace with the league’s pacesetters.
Currently fourth with 31 points from 16 matches, Atletico remain nine points behind leaders Barcelona- and cannot afford further slip-ups- especially against a Valencia side fighting to distance themselves from relegation danger.
Los Che sit 16th with 15 points, barely three clear of the drop zone, and arrive in the capital unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions.
However, their long-standing struggles away from home and a historically poor record at the Wanda make this a daunting assignment.
Valencia’s season has been turbulent under Carlos Corberán, marked by inconsistency, injuries, and a worrying lack of attacking output.
Despite their league position, their recent form shows resilience: three draws and a win in their last four La Liga matches underline their improved organisation and defensive work ethic.
Their last outing, a 1-1 draw with Sevilla, extended their unbeaten run and boosted confidence, but their away form remains problematic - having taken only three points from seven matches on the road.
Breaking down an Atletico defence that has conceded just six home goals all season will be a major challenge.
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Atletico’s recent dip came after a run of seven straight wins in all competitions, halted by defeats to Barcelona (3-1) and Athletic Bilbao (1-0).
However, they responded in midweek with a thrilling 3-2 Champions League win away to PSV - an important psychological boost ahead of this domestic fixture.
Their home form remains exceptional: seven wins from eight league matches at the Metropolitano, making it one of the most difficult venues for visiting teams in Europe.
Simeone’s men have not only been effective in front of goal but defensively reliable, with three clean sheets in their last three meetings with Valencia.
Atletico Madrid’s overall form across their last six matches shows four wins and two defeats (WWWWLL), with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded.
Although they have become slightly more vulnerable defensively in recent weeks, their performances at home remain exceptionally strong.
The team thrives on aggressive pressing, structured transitions and efficient finishing, spearheaded by Julián Álvarez and the in-form Alexander Sørloth.
Valencia’s recent form (LDWDWD) is steadier than their season suggests.
They have only lost once in their last seven across all competitions and have become increasingly difficult to break down.
However, their attacking output away from home is extremely low - just four goals scored in seven away league matches while conceding a total of sixteen.
Their inability to turn draws into wins is a major concern, as is their defensive vulnerability against top opposition, highlighted by a 4-0 collapse against Real Madrid earlier in the campaign.
Atletico Madrid enter the contest with a few absentees.
Marcos Llorente and José Giménez remain sidelined with injuries, while Alex Baena - will be assessed late.
Clement Lenglet is expected to return, strengthening defensive depth, while Thiago Almada could be reinstated to the starting XI after impressing in rotation roles.
The front two of Julian Álvarez and Alexandre Sørloth is likely to continue, with the latter delivering a standout display against PSV midweek.
Valencia will be without central defender César Tárrega due to suspension, an unwelcome setback given their need for defensive solidity.
Mouctar Diakhaby is back in training and may feature from the bench, providing a timely boost.
Hugo Duro, their top scorer with five league goals, leads the line again, supported by Diego López and Luis Rioja in wide zones. Pepelu and Almeida will anchor midfield in what will likely be a compact 4-2-3-1 setup.
Atletico Madrid are expected to impose themselves early with an aggressive, front-foot approach.
Simeone will look to dominate territory, compress the pitch and use vertical patterns through Koke, Barrios and Almada to feed the strike pairing.
Their wide play - especially through Nahuel Molina - will be crucial in stretching Valencia’s defensive block.
Given the visitors’ limited attacking threat away from home, Atletico may adopt a higher defensive line than usual and seek to force turnovers in dangerous areas.
Valencia’s intentions will revolve around defensive solidity and counter-attacking selectivity.
Corberán is expected to deploy a mid-to-low block, congesting central spaces and hoping to hit Atletico on transitional opportunities.
Wide areas, especially through Correia and Gaya, will be key to any attacking sequences.
However, with their limited away goal output and Atletico’s strong pressing structure, their offensive expectations remain modest. Set pieces may represent their best avenue to score.
Atletico Madrid’s home form has been nothing short of exceptional this season, underlining why the Wanda Metropolitano remains one of the most challenging grounds for any visiting side.
They boast a perfect record built on disciplined defensive organization, sharp pressing triggers, and ruthless efficiency in the final third.
Simeone’s side rarely allow opponents space or rhythm in their own backyard, combining structure with clinical finishing to consistently tilt matches in their favour.
Valencia, meanwhile, arrive with an away record that continues to raise concerns.
They have managed just one win from their last 11 away matches in all competitions, reflecting their struggles against more assertive sides on the road.
In La Liga specifically, they have collected only three points from seven away fixtures this season, scoring just four goals - a return of 0.57 goals per match.
Their lack of cutting edge and vulnerability when pushed back into deeper zones have contributed to a poor run of results, making this trip to Madrid one of their toughest tests yet.
Atletico Madrid have dominated this fixture, winning eight of the last ten meetings.
Notably, they have kept clean sheets in the last three clashes, scoring 3-0 in each of those matches.
Valencia have not won away at Atletico since February 2011, underlining the scale of their challenge. Overall trends strongly favour the hosts both historically and stylistically.
Key Pointers;
Valencia won once in their last 11 away matches.
Atletico Madrid have nine wins in their nine home matches.
Valencia has one win in their last 10 meetings with Atletico Madrid.
Atletico Madrid kept clean sheets in their last three meetings with Valencia.
Given Atletico Madrid’s exceptional home form, superior quality, and dominant head-to-head record, alongside Valencia’s poor away performances and limited attacking output, this match heavily tilts toward the hosts.
Simeone’s side are in their strongest environment, boosted by a Champions League win, and face an opponent that struggles to threaten in big games on the road.
Prediction; Atletico Madrid to win
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