Bundesliga preview 2023/24: Tuchel against Tuchel

8, 13, 13, 2, 21, 15, 10, 10 and 19. These numbers represent the difference in points between the first-placed Bayern Munich and the second placed teams in the last nine years. Just by those numbers its clear why Bundesliga has been named the most boring league in terms of uncertainty when it comes to the title race. So, during the last season, the champion was decided literally in the last 10 minutes of the championship, and that was a joy to behold for any true football fan, but does it mean that the title race 2023/24 will come close to the one from the last season? According to the latest moves from the current champion – no. But let’s examine everything.

Their own worst enemy…

Everything changed so that everything can stay the same. That could be the main moto of the Bayern Munich’s off the field moves since May. Hours after they won the title only on goal difference, they sacked CEO Oliver Kahn and sporting director Hasan Salihamidzic, while coach Julian Nagelsmann was sacked during the season. Then other moves followed: the Bavarians brought in Raphael Guerreiro (Borussia Dortmund), Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur) Min-jae Kim (Napoli) and Konrad Laimer (RB Leipzig). All of that was done in order to prevent them from finishing the title race in the last round, like last season. On paper, that shouldn’t be a problem. They took one of the better Leipzig players for themselves, they signed one of the best strikers in Europe for a massive sum and they acquired arguably the best defender in Serie A. Any weaknesses? Hell yea! Thomas Tuchel.

Bayern’s legend: ‘Nobody fooled the club like the Spurs did’

The German coach’s journey was impressive: Mainz, Dortmund, Paris Saint Germain, Chelsea and Bayern Munich. He was in the Champions League finals twice, lost one (PSG), won one (Chelsea over Guardiola’s City). Bayern Munich post is as good as it gets, and former executive duo admitted they wanted him in the club for a long time, so all the elements of the fairy tale are there. But…the team has not been better under Tuchel, far from it. Nagelsmann was sacked, but the team didn’t get any better. Everybody knows that the title was won only because Borussia bottled it at home against Mainz and drew while they needed a win. Out of 13 games in charge of the Bavarians, he won only 6, with two draws and no less than 5 defeats! The worse of them was just the other day, against Leipzig in the Super Cup. After four weeks of preparation, the third placed team in Bundesliga ‘murdered’ them so much, that Tuchel had to apologize to Kane (!) for seeing his new teammates in a bad light. Various critics are not very happy with the way he is handling the squad, so it’s easy to predict – Bayern should be the champion if Tuchel doesn’t bottle it.

Is the Number 2 spot wide open?

Very much so. Borussia Dortmund could have (and should have) won the Bundesliga title but it didn’t happen and they will have to start all over again. And just like last season, they are not even close to Bayern, compared to their reinforcements. In fact, the Millionaires are even weaker, considering that one of the most talented young midfielders in the world Jude Bellingham has moved to Real Madrid. They also lost Raphael Guerreiro (Bayern Munich), but then replaced them with Ramy Bensebaini (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Felix Nmecha (Wolfsburg) and Marcel Sabitzer (Bayern Munich), but Bellingham is not easily replaceable. Still, Dortmund should have strong enough squad to get into the title race once again. Problem is, there are others who want the same, and they are not called Bayern.

There is no end to Bayern's troubles: Neuer out of goal until the end of the year

During the last ten seasons, BVB has finished as the second in the league five times. Among other teams which finished as the second during those other five times, one stands out – Leipzig. Red Bull is leading this club brilliantly and they are at the top of the table for years in a row. They know that the title is (almost) unreachable, so they focus on money – a top four finish is always the main aim for any coach. Money from the Champions League is needed to continue their brilliant policy of buying low and selling high, something which only Dortmund does so successfully as Leipzig. Formed in 2009, they got promoted from the lowest ranks to the Bundesliga in the 2016/17 season and in their first season, they finished second. After that, they only had one season below fourth place. They lost first team players Josko Gvardiol (Manchester City), Konrad Laimer (Bayern Munich), Christopher Nkunku (Chelsea), and Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool) and yet they spent millions of euros and brought in Christoph Baumgartner, Fabio Carvalho (Liverpool, loan), Castello Lukeba (Lyon), Lois Openda (Lens), and Xavi Simons (Paris Saint-Germain, loan), among others. Result? They thrashed Bayern Munich in the Super Cup 3-0, just days ago. They should never be underestimated.

Right man ,right place: Bayer's saviour clinches new two-year contract

But this year, there is the third contender (for the second place at least) – Bayer Leverkusen. Along with Wolfsburg, they are one of those clubs with little history and tradition and with a small following, but big finances (the mega rich medical concern Bayer) and they (just like Volkswagen company) aimed at that fourth place in Bundesliga for years. Last season, they were ‘equipped’ with players and finances to be at least third on the table, but their poor choice of coach (Gerardo Seoane) led them to the lower part of the table. They found a rookie coach Xabi Alonso who got it, and they managed to finish sixth. The hype before this season is big, and the feeling is that the fourth place is expected and maybe Leipzig can be overthrown from the third place. Yet, they lost a very important player this season, as Moussa Diaby went to Aston Villa, while long time servants like Karim Bellarabi and Kerem Demirbay are also gone. They replaced them with Arsenal captain Granit Xhaka and Borussia’s Jonas Hofmann, and these are excellent gains for coach Xavi. Bayer will be dangerous this season.

Outside looking in

The trio of Union Berlin, Freiburg and Wolfsburg are always up for a challenge to ‘break’ the already predicted Top 4. After all, Union Berlin did it last season, and after finishing fourth, and they will play the Champions League for the first time. This club looks like a Bundesliga version of Brighton, with a big difference – their players are not sold for ridiculous amounts to Chelsea. They can only manage one or two sales of their top players per season. They finished fifth two years ago, and fourth last season, but this time, it will be harder to top that. However, they won’t have a problem if they finish in the top six. Looking at the last season, they do have a better squad, as current and former German internationals Roben Gosens and Kevin Volland have been brought in from Inter and Monaco, along with David Datro Fofana on loan from Chelsea, but they are expecting to sell their best striker Sheraldo Becker, which could complicate things. In case he stays, they are the strongest candidates to be fourth of fifth in Bundesliga.

The loyal army: Borussia already sold 55.000 season tickets

After two seasons of constant rise (just like Union Berlin), Freiburg looks set to repeat the success. They will play their third consecutive season in Europa League, having just missed on the Champions League spot last season. And maybe that’s better for everybody, since this club doesn’t have the financial requirements to fight on both domestic stage and in the biggest European competition at the same time. Their main strength is coach Christian Streich, who has 353 Bundesliga matches and is one of the most respected mangers in Germany. Thanks mainly to him, this modest team is punching way above its weight and they should be happy if they manage a top six finish for the third year in a row. They sold only what they had to, and brought in only replacements for the ones they sold.

The unlucky winner of the 2021/22 Europa League Frankfurt certainly has the possibility for a top six finish, but…two things are crucial here, and nobody can predict the outcome. First one, they don’t have Oliver Glasner anymore. Dino Toppmoller, former Julian Nagelsmann’s assistant got his first job, and nobody knows now will he handle this team. On top of that, Eintracht’s best player, Kolo Muani is expected to leave, and that will leave a huge hole up front. This team certainly has the capacity to finish among the top 6, but their rookie coach needs to show up, and somebody has to score goals, and both things are not certain…

Stuck in the middle

OK, every season is different and there is no guarantee that any of the teams mentioned will finish where they were projected (just look at Leverkusen in 2022), but there are few clubs who are likely to be safe throughout the upcoming season and whose fans don’t have to worry about relegation, but shouldn’t be too optimistic about Europa qualifications either. Wolfsburg leads this group of clubs and they could actually make it into the upper echelon, as they should have last season, but missed European football by a single point. Micky van de Ven (Tottenham Hotspur) and Felix Nmecha (Dortmund) have left the club and Lovro Majer from Rennes arrived for 30 million euros as the midfield replacement. The Volkswagen-backed club is not so attractive as it was years before, so apart from Majer (who is still unproven), there are no ‘stars’ in this team. With another quality defender they could go back in contention for the upper part of the table.

Quick Micky is not a mouse, but a $55 million Cockerel

From the rest of the pack, Borussia Monchengladbach could do better than the last year’s 10th finish. As always, they do have some exciting youngsters in their squad, and if they manage to get them going early, this should be a good year for one of the most popular clubs in Germany. They also changed coaches, so after a disappointing season, Daniel Farke went back to England (Leeds), while Gerardo Seoane took over. His fiasco at Leverkusen could give him enough experience to do things differently, and the level of expectations (and pressure) in Borussia is not so high, so he should do good. Other clubs can be roughly put in the ‘as you were’ category, as they will probably finish one place above or below from the last season. Augsburg is the prime example, as this club finished between 12th and 15th in the league for eight straight seasons. Hoffenheim and Mainz are the clubs in that category, even thou the first one unexpected went into the relegation battle last season. This time they managed to get striking power with Wout Weghorst, who after Manchester United came on loan from Burnley. Werder survived the comeback to Bundesliga last season and is now expected to be a stable first-league club, especially since they managed to keep their best striker and Germany international Niclas Füllkrug.

Fight for your lives

As always, there are clubs which are destined to fight for relegation, and like in any other leagues, the newcomers from the Bundesliga 2 are the prime candidates to go back, especially since there are two clubs here who are small and without budget: Heidenheim and Darmstadt. Looking at their arrivals this season, it’s hard to predict that they will survive relegation, but one of those teams might surprise a few clubs, and if some other team unexpectedly falls into the bottom of table, who knows…Stuttgart went through a bit of a chaotic season last time around, staying up by after defeating Hamburg in the promotion/relegation playoffs. In 2022-23, they went through four coaches and two sporting directors. They are better this season, but just this week they lost their most reliable midfielder Wataru Endo, who is joining Liverpool, while former Gunners Konstantinos Mavropanos is a subject of a bid from West Ham. If they leave (which is 99% certain), the club will be back to square one.

BUNDESLIGA - MATCHDAY 1

Friday

21.30: (9.00) Werder (6.00) Bayern (1.33)

Saturday

16.30: (2.85) Augsburg (3.50) M' gladbach (2.55)

16.30: (2.55) Leverkusen (3.50) RB Leipzig (2.85)

16.30: (2.35) Hoffenheim (3.50) Freiburg (3.15)

16.30: (1.70) Stuttgart (4.00) Bochum (5.40)

16.30: (1.65) Wolfsburg (4.10) Heidenheim (5.80)

19.30: (1.42) Dortmund (5.00) Koln (8.00)

Sunday

16.30: (2.05) Union Berlin (3.50) Mainz (4.00)

18.30: (1.40) Eintr.Frankfurt (5.00) Darmstadt (9.00)

***odds are subject to change