Devastated Dinamo players (up) and Club Brugge, Man City and Sporting celebrations (down) (©AFP)
Devastated Dinamo players (up) and Club Brugge, Man City and Sporting celebrations (down) (©AFP)

Strange case of probability guillotine and how Man City beat all odds

Reading Time: 2min | Thu. 30.01.25. | 19:15

Ahead of the start of the new Champions League edition, the prediction was clear: collect 11 points, and you have a 99% chance to advance. Last night, the remaining 1% prevailed

Today's football is full of statistics, data, analysis, and (un)necessary information, which can help with making projections on who'll win, score, advance, or be eliminated. However, football occasionally strikes back, proving that the most popular sport in the world cannot be predicted.

Ahead of the first edition of the "new" UEFA Champions League with the new competition format, the projections were crystal clear: if a team collects at least 11 points, it has a 99% chance of advancing from the opening phase. However, last night - like so many times before - football taught everyone a lesson, as the remaining 1% prevailed.

Four teams finished the league phase with 11 points, but there were places in the Round of 32 for only three of them. Man City, Sporting Lisbon, and Club Brugge confirmed the "99% theory" but Dinamo Zagreb did not, as the Croatian side was eliminated due to goal difference, despite their gigantic 2-1 triumph over the seven-time UCL winners, AC Milan. In the end, the first-round catastrophe against Bayern Munich and the 9-2 defeat turned out to be fatal.

Therefore, football was once again sitting in the professor's chair, teaching everyone another lesson. So, the next time one tries to predict the unpredictable, he or she may remember what happened to Dinamo. The Croats won't forget it soon, for sure.


tags

UEFA Champions LeagueDinamo Zagreb

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